The valuation of the hottest auto industry leader

2022-08-11
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There is still room for improvement in the valuation of leading companies in the automotive industry

Guide: the positive factors that promote the development of the heavy truck industry will exist for a long time. The heavy truck market will remain optimistic in 2008. At present, the valuation level of leading companies in the industry is relatively low, and there is still room for improvement. From an international perspective, the parts industry contains significant investment opportunities. We believe that from the world parts

the positive factors that promote the development of the heavy truck industry will exist for a long time. The heavy truck market will remain optimistic in 2008. At present, the valuation level of leading companies in the industry is relatively low, and there is still room for improvement

from the perspective of internationalization, the parts industry contains significant investment opportunities. We believe that from the development experience of the world's parts industry, it is an inevitable development trend to move towards monopoly competition, and the vigorous development of China's automotive industry has provided a solid demand foundation for it, and the prospect is promising. However, we judge that only parts enterprises with the background of joint venture or cooperation with foreign capital can fully share the fruits of industry growth due to technology and other reasons, and relevant listed companies should become the first choice for investment

heavy trucks: the growth story is still unfolding. In the month of

, the whole heavy truck industry sold 127924 heavy trucks, an increase of 63.66% year-on-year. For the strong enterprises in the industry, the sales situation in January was very optimistic, and the year-on-year growth remained high. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of China heavy truck, Shaanxi heavy truck and Beijing Foton were 60.93%, 96.47% and 118.84% respectively, with promising prospects

the competition pattern of heavy truck industry is basically stable, and the pattern of oligopoly has been formed. Since 2006, the industry development trend of large tonnage heavy truck products with a load of more than 15 tons, represented by China heavy truck and Shaanxi heavy truck, gradually replacing the quasi heavy truck products of Dongfeng and FAW Group, has continued. The market shares of China heavy truck and Shaanxi heavy truck have increased to 20.49% and 12.51% respectively, while the market share of Dongfeng Motor has decreased from 22% in 2006 to 16.99%

after the development in 2006 and the first half of 2007, we believe that although this competition pattern is still developing further, the market concentration of the industry has been relatively stable, and the pattern of stable competition has basically taken shape

we judge that the main reason why the heavy truck industry is in the boom cycle is that the incremental demand generated by the development of the logistics and transportation industry has promoted the strong development of semi trailers; The special vehicle manufacturer has a strong momentum of batching production according to customer orders, increasing the demand for heavy truck chassis; The demand for heavy trucks in the construction of relevant projects in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan"

for the leading companies in the heavy truck industry, the valuation level should be improved under the condition that the growth expectation of the heavy truck industry is clear. We believe that in the second half of the year, for listed companies of leading enterprises, their reasonable valuation level can be increased to times the P/E ratio of 2008, and there is still much room for improvement

passenger cars: world-class enterprises are growing

in January, China's passenger car industry turned slightly to the right and continued to drive 470 meters along the G220. 60201 passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 21.74%. The cross speed growth of the whole industry continues

under the condition of steady growth of domestic demand, we judge that the main driving force to maintain the rapid growth of industry sales is the development of overseas markets. For the major domestic bus manufacturing enterprises, their products have strong international comparative advantages in price. In terms of technical performance, they have carried out joint ventures or cooperation with foreign capital earlier, so the gap with the world giants is not large, and the overseas export space is broad, and the prospect is good

at present, Yutong and Jinlong are the duopoly in the Volkswagen bus market, and their competitive advantages are very obvious. We judge that although many small passenger car manufacturing enterprises maintain their operations at this stage due to the impact of local protection, the promulgation and implementation of the new "passenger car production qualification" will speed up the elimination of backward small manufacturers. With the continuation of the "strong and strong" competition pattern in the industry, there is room for further improvement in market concentration

for leading companies such as Yutong Bus and Jinlong bus, we believe that their excellent operation has brought growth beyond the industry. Since 2007, the sales of large buses in the industry have increased by 31.73% year-on-year, while Yutong Bus and Jinlong bus have increased by 43% and 50.44% respectively, both significantly higher than the average growth rate of the market. At the same time, the sales volume of medium-sized buses of Yutong Bus and Jinlong bus also increased by 18.66% and 24.65% year-on-year respectively, both higher than the industry average of 12.10%

in the comparison of sales structure, we believe that Yutong Bus is better than Jinlong automobile, because the sales proportion of Yutong Bus and large-scale bus continues to increase to 41.72%, while Jinlong automobile is 24.14%, which correspondingly shows that the profitability of the company is slightly inferior

the expansion of overseas markets leads to the opening of product demand space, which can weaken the impact of domestic economic cyclical fluctuations on the industry. Under the condition of maintaining rapid growth in sales, the valuation level should be improved. We believe that leading companies can enjoy a valuation of about 30 times 2008 P/E in the second half of the year, which has a certain room for improvement

we believe that there is a long-term and short-term contradiction in the valuation of Listed Companies in the car industry. The reasonable valuation level should be slightly lower than that of leading commercial vehicle companies. In the second half of the year, we can enjoy the valuation of about 25 times the P/E ratio of 2008 performance, and there is still some room for improvement

parts: significant investment opportunities

in the context of the globalization of automobile production, in order to ensure the quality of finished vehicles and reduce costs, many automobile manufacturers have carried out global procurement of parts. The advantage of global procurement is that vehicle manufacturers can make full use of the advantages of parts resources in the world and reduce manufacturing costs

we believe that international procurement requires zero continuous pressure (pull) to F3. Component manufacturers must have relatively strong brands and deep technical precipitation. After many years of development, Kennedy and three other students of Michigan Institute of technology have established their own enterprises - superior filament (advanced wire rod) has still become an oligopoly manufacturer in the industry. With the reduction of the number of parts manufacturers, monopolistic competition will become the inevitable trend of the development of the world's parts industry

"energy conservation and emission reduction" will become the trend to guide the development of the industry in the future. Suppliers of parts and components that master engine energy-saving technology and can help vehicle manufacturers produce products that comply with emission regulations will face better development opportunities and relatively clear growth space

however, for parts enterprises with joint venture and foreign capital background, on the one hand, based on the continuous development of the domestic automotive market; On the other hand, it can go abroad to enter the global supporting system and participate in the procurement of the global OEM and am market, which has a very broad growth space

after comprehensive analysis, we believe that with the trend of monopoly competition in the world auto parts industry and the continuous global procurement of supply chain, domestic parts enterprises with joint venture and foreign capital background will face better development opportunities, be able to share the fruits of industry growth, and have a promising development prospect

after combining the competitive situation and development prospects of different sub industries, we believe that we should focus on the allocation of fine-grained industries with the combination of growth and monopoly. Taking the final heavy truck demand as the starting point, find out a strong industrial chain formed by the same demand, such as China Heavy Truck (complete vehicle) - Weichai Power (engine + complete vehicle) - Weifu high tech (engine fuel injection system), and make appropriate and dynamic asset allocation in combination with the change of valuation level. Secondly, we will focus on leading companies in the large and medium-sized bus industry. Here we are more optimistic about Yutong Bus

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