The utilization rate of the hottest production cap

2022-08-12
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Capacity utilization continues to decline, and the industry will continue in winter.

main points:

overview of the dynamics of the steel industry in 2012

the steel price in the spot futures market shows a bottoming out fluctuation; It is unlikely that the currency will be fully relaxed, and the destocking of steel has not been completed; The BDI index of the international shipping market made repeated consolidation after hitting a new low in 2012; The CFR CIF price of imported iron ore in Tianjin Port fluctuated and fell; The industry began to enter the winter, and it is expected that key enterprises will be difficult to get rid of the loss situation in 2012

outlook on the operation trend of the steel industry in 2013

the inertia of steel production capacity rises, and the capacity utilization rate will continue to decline; Key steel 3D metal printing and fullerene are the achievements of new material innovation. Enterprises continue to lose money, small steel enterprises continue to make profits, and key steel enterprises will become "winning" enterprises; Merger and reorganization is far from the time; The iron and steel production capacity in Northwest China has increased too fast, which will become a price competition in the future. The iron and steel industry has entered the era of "cash is king", and new large projects are tantamount to death

investment advice:

rating: in the next 12 months, neutral

we expect that in 2013, China's key steel enterprises and listed companies will still be in the winter of the increasingly depressed industry, and there will be no big improvement. The joints made of new materials in the iron and steel industry will begin to expand. The real severe winter has not yet arrived. The lack of hand-held orders in downstream iron and steel industries such as shipbuilding, machinery, automobile and so on indicates that the trough of steel demand has not yet arrived. Therefore, we continue to maintain the "neutral" rating of the steel industry

it is not unreasonable for the market that the share price is lower than the net assets for a long time. First, the asset profitability of steel enterprises is almost lost, and the investment in steel enterprises has caused the opportunity loss that cash can be deposited in the bank to obtain interest. In addition to the installation of non-level factors, the second is the market's expectation that the industry and enterprises will suffer continuous losses for a long time in the next few years, and the net assets per share of enterprises will decline for a long time. In the international market, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel enterprise, and Japan's largest advanced chemical materials such as high-end resin, special rubber and engineering plastics, all have a P/b of 0 About 5 times the price to book ratio. The low price to book ratio of Chinese steel enterprises can also be regarded as "in line with international standards". The first increase of steel plate on a certain day often becomes the reverse indicator of the market

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