The utilization level and profitability of the hot

2022-08-24
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The utilization level and profitability of thermal power will face double improvement

in recent years, China has gradually implemented economic policies based on structural adjustment and energy policies oriented by energy conservation and efficiency increase, and the growth rate of power consumption has gradually slowed down. In view of this, relevant departments took the initiative to adjust the new installed capacity planning of coal-fired power. It is expected that the installed capacity of coal-fired power will be within 1100gw by 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of only about 2.4%, lower than the expected compound growth rate of 3.8%-4.6% of power consumption, providing a basis for improving the utilization level of existing units

coal prices fluctuated at a high level, and policies are expected to continue to guide and improve the profitability of power enterprises.

recently, the Bohai Rim thermal coal comprehensive average price index (q5500k) remained at a high level of 583 yuan/ton, causing a significant deterioration in the profitability of thermal power enterprises. The national development and Reform Commission and other departments have attached great importance to the current difficult situation of thermal power enterprises, and have taken various ways to improve the situation, such as guiding coal prices downward and compressing government funds. We believe that short-term factors such as power consumption peak in summer may provide support for coal prices, but from the comparison of the operation of coal enterprises and power enterprises, the policy level is still expected to favor power enterprises and continue to guide and improve the profitability of power enterprises

the continuous promotion of power reform will help restore the attributes of power commodities and benefit the long-term improvement of the revenue end of thermal power enterprises.

in combination with the recent strategic restructuring of China Nuclear Power Group and China Nuclear Power Construction Group, and the suspension of the trading of China Shenhua and Guodian power, the follow-up mixed ownership reform in the power sector is expected to continue. We believe that coal power pool will become one of the reform directions of the power industry. If it is successfully implemented, it is expected to stabilize the supply and demand of coal to a certain extent and benefit the steady development of the two major industries of coal and power

invigorate the stock and improve efficiency. The reform of power enterprises is at the right time.

combined with the recent strategic restructuring of China Nuclear Power Group and China Nuclear Power Construction Group, and the suspension of the trading of China Shenhua and Guodian power, it is expected that the follow-up mixed ownership reform in the power sector will continue to be implemented. We believe that coal power pool will become one of the reform directions of the power industry. If it is successfully implemented, it is expected to stabilize the supply and demand of coal to a certain extent and benefit the steady development of the two major industries of coal and power

investment suggestions

comprehensively considering the equity installation of major domestic coal power enterprises, coal consumption per kilowatt hour, coal price elasticity and other factors, it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets such as Huaneng International, zheneng power, Huadian International, Guodian power, Datang Power Generation and so on

1 under the background of energy structure adjustment, the utilization level of existing thermal power units is expected to rise

1.1 driven by domestic energy structure adjustment, the proportion of new thermal power units will continue to decline

in recent years, China has gradually implemented economic policies based on structural adjustment and energy policies oriented by energy conservation and efficiency increase, and the growth of electricity consumption has gradually slowed down. In 2016, the national electricity consumption totaled 5.92 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, as shown in Figure 1. In addition, according to the "13th five year plan" for power development issued by the energy administration at the end of 2016, by the end of 2020, China's total social electricity consumption is expected to be 6 2 trillion degrees, with an average annual growth of 3 8%。 In the next five years or even longer, we believe that the growth rate of domestic power consumption will maintain a low-speed growth trend

the installed capacity of thermal power accounts for a relatively high proportion in China. Under the background of maintaining low-speed growth in power consumption and continuous construction and operation of clean energy power generation, the installed capacity of the thermal power industry with coal as the main fuel may decline. According to the report of China Electricity Council, the installed capacity of power generation equipment in 2016 was 1645.75gw, including 1053.88gw of thermal power, accounting for 64.04%. Figure 2 shows the national power installation structure at the end of 2016. According to the 13th five year plan for electric power development (2020), by 2020, the installed capacity of coal-fired power will be controlled within 1100gw, the proportion of installed capacity of fossil energy power generation will reach 61%, and the proportion of installed capacity of coal-fired power will reach 55%. It can be seen that the power to optimize the installed capacity of electric power in the future is strong, the proportion of installed capacity of thermal power is expected to decline, and the installed capacity of non fossil energy will rise. During the 13th five year plan, the space for new installed capacity of thermal power is very limited

since April 2016, the national energy administration has appropriately alleviated the overcapacity of coal-fired power by carrying out special supervision on the planning and construction of coal-fired power projects, increasing the elimination of backward production capacity, and taking measures such as "canceling a batch, delaying the approval of a batch, and delaying the construction of a batch", so as to accelerate the transformation of coal-fired power from electric power to electric power

on October 20, 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on further regulating the planning and construction of coal power, further planning the production structure of coal power projects supporting coal power transmission channels, in order to resolve the potential risk of excess coal power. (1) The production scale of supporting coal-fired power transmission projects of Zhundong to East China in Xinjiang Zhundong coal power base, Ningdong to Zhejiang in Ningxia Ningdong coal power base, shanghaimiao to Shandong in Ordos coal power base in Inner Mongolia, and Yuheng to Shandong in Northern Shaanxi coal power base in Shaanxi should be controlled within half of the national planning scale by the end of 2020. (2) The total production scale of Ximeng coal power base in Inner Mongolia and the supporting coal power projects of Ximeng Shandong and Ximeng Jiangsu transmission channels should be controlled within 7.3 million KW by the end of 2020. (3) Other coal power transmission projects (including coal power bases and point to point coal power transmission projects) included in the planning and approval (under construction) should also adjust the approval (construction) sequence and grasp the production rhythm in combination with the power supply and demand situation at the receiving end and the risk warning of coal power planning and construction

in January 2017, 11 provinces and regions, including Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangdong and Guangxi, successively sent letters to plan the scale of coal-fired power production in the province during the 13th Five Year Plan period, and strive to achieve the goal of controlling the installed capacity at 1100gw by the end of 2020. The specific arrangement of the scale of production is shown in Table 1

the planning of limiting the installed scale of coal-fired power is expected to be strictly implemented during the 13th Five Year Plan period, so as to lay the foundation for improving the utilization level of existing thermal power units. In May 2017, the Energy Administration issued the 2020 coal power planning and construction risk early warning to investigate the construction risk of coal power projects in various provinces and regions in China from three aspects: the economy of coal power construction, the adequacy of installed capacity, and resource constraints. Among them, Hunan and Hainan provinces have green early warning, Henan, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces have orange early warning, and the rest of the provinces have red early warning. In view of this, we believe that China's power installed capacity will remain relatively abundant during the 13th Five Year Plan period, which can be described as the golden period to promote the structural adjustment of power installed capacity, and the plan for limiting the scale of coal-fired power installed capacity is expected to be strictly implemented

1.2 the industrial boom continued, the level of power consumption picked up, and the stock of thermal power units benefited.

the industrial boom picked up, helping the power consumption situation continue to pick up. In 2016, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 5919.8 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%; Among them, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 107.5 billion kwh, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 4210.8 billion kwh, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 796.1 billion kwh, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 805.4 billion kwh, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year. In the first half of 2017, the recovery trend of the manufacturing industry was maintained, and the power consumption of the whole society increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 2950.8 billion kwh, maintaining a stable recovery. The subsequent domestic power demand is expected to maintain a warming trend. Figures 3 and 4 show the power consumption and growth rate of the whole society from January 2015 to June 2017 and the power consumption and growth rate of the four high energy consuming industries from January 2015 to June 2017 respectively

in 2017, thermal power generation increased by 7.1% year-on-year, higher than the national growth rate of 6.3% power consumption, and the utilization hours of units also rebounded. In 2017, the national thermal power generation increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 2221.5 billion kwh, and the utilization hours of thermal power increased by 46 to 2010 year-on-year. Figure 5 shows the statistics and prediction of utilization hours of thermal power and hydropower equipment in China in. We believe that with the continuous implementation of the new thermal power capacity restriction policy and the recovery of power consumption level, the annual utilization hours of thermal power units are expected to increase by 98 hours to 4263 compared with 2016

2 the apparent density, tightening strength, thermal insulation performance, zigzag fracture force, combustion performance and other items of the products were tested. The coal price fluctuated at a high level, and the policy is expected to continue to guide and improve the profitability of power enterprises

2.1 the profitability of power enterprises fell sharply, and the policy is expected to continue to guide the coal price downward

the national power coal price has remained at a high level since it started to rise in early June 2016. According to Qinhuangdao coal data, the Bohai Rim thermal coal comprehensive average price index (q5500k) has risen from 390 yuan/ton in early June 2016 to the highest price of 607 yuan/ton in November 2016. After a short-term correction, it rose again, reaching 606 yuan/ton in March 2017, with an increase of 55.38%. As of July 26th, 2017, the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) reached 583 yuan/ton, which remained high and volatile. Figure 6 shows the trend of Bohai Rim thermal coal comprehensive average price index (q5500k)

the high price of thermal coal has seriously eroded the profits of downstream thermal power enterprises. According to the 2016 annual reports of major thermal power enterprises, the sample area of Huaneng International, Huadian International and Guodian is 25mm × 25mm × The proportion of fuel cost in the total cost of 5 thermal power enterprises including 2=1250mm2 power, Guangdong power a and zheneng power is 63.59%, 59.04%, 42.07%, 62.07% and 67.39% respectively. The fuel cost of thermal power enterprises accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the fluctuation of coal price will have a great impact on the operation of enterprises. As shown in Table 2, the net profits of the five thermal power enterprises in 2016 were compared with those in the first quarter of 2017. In the same period, the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) increased by 55.13% year-on-year, and the net profits of the five thermal power enterprises decreased by 72.83% year-on-year

under the current coal price, the profitability of coal enterprises has significantly improved. It is no longer necessary to implement large-scale production reduction measures in 2017, and the shortage of coal supply will be effectively alleviated. According to the report of Qinhuangdao coal, the employees of coal enterprises have resumed normal working hours, and Shanxi Province will add 70million tons of high-quality production capacity on the basis of reducing inefficient production capacity this year. We predict that in view of the current domestic coal market price trend, the coal price has risen significantly from the low level, the overall profitability of the coal industry has improved significantly, and the 276 working day system of the coal industry may no longer be strictly enforced, The shortage of coal supply will be effectively alleviated

the trend of coal price has been valued by the decision-making level, and the follow-up policies are expected to continue to guide the coal price to move closer to a reasonable range. According to relevant reports on China's coal resources, at the beginning of 2017, the national development and Reform Commission, the China Coal Association, the China Electricity Council, and the China Steel Association jointly issued the memorandum on curbing abnormal fluctuations in coal market prices (hereinafter referred to as the memorandum), which established an early warning mechanism for abnormal fluctuations in coal prices based on the medium and long-term benchmark contract prices of key coal power and coal steel enterprises, Table 3 shows the price range of each early warning region and the corresponding countermeasures. We believe that the issuance of the memorandum provides some guidance for the operation of coal prices throughout the year. The annual coal price is expected to operate in the range of yuan/ton. At the same time, given that the current price is at a high level in the range, the subsequent coal price is expected to fall

at the end of June 2017, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on ensuring the transportation of coal, electricity, oil and gas during the peak summer in 2017, which clearly proposed: accelerating the release of high-quality production capacity; All localities should carefully sort out and put forward classified disposal measures for coal mines that have shut down and stopped production, and promptly organize the resumption of work and production acceptance for those that meet the conditions, so as to strive to make every effort to recover; It is not allowed to deal with safety production, environmental protection and other inspections by simply stopping production. We believe that the follow-up policies are expected to continue to guide the release of high-quality coal production capacity,

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