The United States may levy temporary auto tariffs,

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The United States may impose temporary auto tariffs. The global auto industry is "surging with cold waves"

on February 17, local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted a report to U.S. President trump, which aims to investigate whether imported cars pose a threat to U.S. national security. The result may lead the United States to impose high tariffs on imported cars and auto parts companies sold to the mainland

the market expects that without tariff exemption, the prices of imported cars from the United States to major auto producing countries such as Germany (which contributes more than 20% of the world's auto exports, and is the world's largest auto exporter), Japan (which contributes about 13% of the world's exports, ranking second) will be significantly increased. Affected by this news, the stock prices of Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen and other large auto companies fell during European stock market trading on the 18th

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waving a tariff stick will hurt itself

on May 23, 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation on imported cars and parts to determine whether the import of related goods affects the national security of the United States. Analysts pointed out that trump launched the 232 survey for three purposes: first, to implement the unfair trade measures of major trading partners against the United States; Second, promote the return of American automobile manufacturing industry to the United States; The third is to realize the priority of the United States through tariff means

after the US Department of Commerce submitted its investigation report on February 17, the White House has 90 days to make a tariff decision. Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on imported automobile products, with the tax rate as high as 25%. However, the market believes that Trump's original intention is not here. Taking the EU, the main export region of automobiles, as an example, danclifton, the policy research director of the research company strategas, said that just submitting the investigation report does not mean that the tariff will take effect. Trump may threaten the EU with automobile tariffs and ask the EU to cooperate in other aspects. According to the data released by Eurostat on February 15 local time, the EU's trade surplus with the United States expanded by 17% to a record high in 2018, which the market believes may put the ongoing negotiations between the two sides at risk

the German media wirtschaftsworche quoted insiders as saying that the investigation report submitted by the U.S. Department of Commerce on February 17 gave three policy suggestions for imported automotive products: first, impose a 10% tariff, which is the same as the current EU import tariff on automobiles; Second, tariffs are only levied on high-tech vehicles, such as electric vehicles; The third is to levy a tariff of 25%

however, analysts pointed out that no matter what kind of automobile tariff strategy is adopted, the United States will harm it. The US think tank Peterson contraction rate s is expressed by the following formula: s={(D-M)/d} × 100% (1) a study by the International Economic Research Institute shows that if other economies retaliate equally against the U.S. auto tariffs, the United States will lose 624000 jobs and about 5% of the employees in the U.S. auto industry will lose their jobs. The latest report released by the automotive research center in Ann Arbor, Michigan, shows that this move may increase the average price of light vehicles in the United States by $2750, reduce the annual sales of American cars by 1.3 million, and force some consumers to enter the used car market. Other major automobile manufacturers said that if tariffs were imposed, the cumulative impact on the United States would be an annual increase in car prices of $83billion, and there was no evidence that car imports posed a national security risk

the United States may impose a temporary five pillar fender auto tariff

analysts pointed out that if the wave of layoffs by industry giants such as general motors and Ford indicates that the cold winter of the global auto market in 2018 has arrived, then with the slowdown of global macroeconomic growth, trade friction and tariff problems, the industry will surge in 2019. Among them, the sales volume of American car market has reached a peak, and it is difficult to be optimistic in 2019; European car market is affected by negative factors such as politics and economy of various countries, and its sales may decline; In the context of the slowdown in the growth rate of the main markets led by China and the United States, the performance of Japanese car companies will also fall into a bottleneck period

the latest data showed that in January, the output of the U.S. automotive industry fell by the largest in nearly a decade, and dragged down the unexpected contraction of the U.S. manufacturing output value in January, the largest decline in eight months. According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on February 15, the U.S. auto and parts output fell 8.8% month on month in January, the largest decline since May 2009, when the U.S. economy was still on the recovery track. The weakness of the automotive industry eventually led to a 0.6% month on month decline in industrial output in the United States, mainly used in the automotive, electrical and electronic industries, for the first time in eight months

the European auto industry also had a bad start. Data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers on February 15 showed that in January this year, the number of passenger cars registered in the European Union and the European Free Trade Association fell by 4.6% year-on-year to 1.23 million, and the number of new car registrations fell for the fifth consecutive month. Michaeldean, an analyst at Bloomberg think tank, said that the European car demand cycle had peaked. In addition, the uncertainty of brexit will also impact the automotive market

the financial reports of the seven major Japanese automakers from April to December 2018 were all released on February 12. Except Toyota and Mitsubishi, the operating profits of the other five automakers fell year-on-year. Due to the slowdown in downstream demand, and the increase in promotion fees and R & D fees for new generation technologies such as autonomous driving, revenue was also squeezed

under such circumstances, if tariffs are imposed again, it will undoubtedly become the last straw to overwhelm the global automotive industry. At present, many institutions still said that the possibility of the United States imposing tariffs on imported cars should not be underestimated

Morgan Stanley warned that the U.S. government is expected to impose temporary vehicle tariffs probably before this summer. Goldman Sachs also warned investors to be prepared that the possibility of imposing temporary auto tariffs is 40%, in order to win greater concessions from the European Union or Japan. Sethcarpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS, believes that the United States may impose a 25% import tariff on cars, excluding auto parts; Countries with trade cooperation such as South Korea, Canada and Mexico will be exempted from automobile tariffs, but will not be exempted from EU tariffs. Citigroup predicts that the auto tariff will reduce the global economic growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2019 and 0.3 percentage points in 2020

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